According to Morgan Stanley analysts accounts citing Rystad Energy, released last week, 2.8 billion barrels of oil were discovered in 2015 outside the United States, equivalent to one month of consumption worldwide. Including that country, the findings increase to 12.1 billion, also the lowest in 63 years. This was another consequence of the strong oil price declines in the international markets last year, leading companies such as Shell and aExxon Mobil to cut investment in exploration to the excess of international production and signs of slowing major economies world.
The term, warns the bank, the decline in the discovery of new wells can lead to a gap between supply and demand in the future. According to Morgan Stanley, even with the forecast of the global drop in consumption by 86 million barrels in 2030 due to commitments to limit the increase in average global temperature, about two current demand of thirds can only be satisfied through the fields in production or which are already under development. On the other hand, the re-entry of players in the market – the case of Iran, who are abolished trade sanctions – can create a compensation effect, shedding more supply internationally.
Morgan Stanley expects companies on average spend more than so far in the next 25 years to create new capacity, even taking into account the fall of early supply by applying the climate agreements in Paris. Still, the exploration activity remains “challenging” at the deterioration of the revenue of this activity in recent years. The price of the international reference units react in different directions, with West Texas Intermediate to register the first gain in four sessions, advancing 0.34% to $ 47.91 per barrel in New York while the Sea brent North loses value for the fourth session. The condition the talks on Monday are also the resumption of oil supplies in Canada, after the forest fires that plowed for weeks, and the continued increase in exports from Iran.